diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 47baece..a096ff0 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -22,6 +22,8 @@ Maintained at [nasdisks.com](https://www.nasdisks.com/), where the same data pow | [`data/backblaze-afr-2026-09-04.csv`](data/backblaze-afr-2026-09-04.csv) | 31 | Annualized failure rates over a rolling window through Q2 2026 (full-year 2025 plus the Q1 and Q2 2026 quarters), computed from Backblaze raw Drive Stats. | | [`data/series-reliability-2026-09-04.csv`](data/series-reliability-2026-09-04.csv) | - | Manufacturer series specs (warranty, rated workload, MTBF) used as context where Backblaze has no data. | +See also **[`price-trends/`](price-trends/)** - monthly median $/TB for NAS drives over time (consumer vs enterprise), a computed aggregate plus a chart. + ## Quick start The files in `data/` are ready to use as-is. If you'd rather hit a live endpoint (CORS-enabled, cached, no key, no rate limit): diff --git a/price-trends/README.md b/price-trends/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0100372 --- /dev/null +++ b/price-trends/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,25 @@ +# NAS drive price trends + +Monthly median price-per-terabyte for current 8TB+ NAS hard drives (US, new, in stock), from Jul 2024 to the latest month, split into the two tiers people choose between: consumer NAS (WD Red / IronWolf class) and enterprise (Exos / MG / Ultrastar). + +![Median $/TB, consumer NAS vs enterprise](nas-price-trend.png) + +## The trend + +Median $/TB sat flat around $20/TB through 2024 and most of 2025, then roughly doubled to the mid-$40s/TB from late 2025, and has held there since. Both tiers moved together: among new drives, enterprise is not the $/TB bargain it's assumed to be, and both got hit about equally. The usual driver is the AI datacenter buildout pulling high-capacity nearline supply. + +## Files + +- [`monthly-median-per-tb.csv`](monthly-median-per-tb.csv) - month, consumer median $/TB, enterprise median $/TB. Computed monthly medians only. + +## Method + +For each month, take each drive's average $/TB across its logged days, then the median of those per-drive values across drives (so a model with more logged days doesn't skew the month). Scope: 8TB and up, US, new in-stock prices, compiled from Amazon price history. CMR/SMR and specs from datasheets. + +8TB and up because small drives carry a much higher $/TB (fixed per-drive costs spread over less capacity), and which small SKUs happen to be in stock would swing an all-capacity median for reasons unrelated to prices actually moving. + +This folder publishes the computed monthly medians only, not the underlying per-drive price observations. + +## Interactive version + +The live, interactive version (hover, zoom, a capacity-matched cheapest-$/TB table, and the full write-up) is at [nasdisks.com/articles/nas-drive-price-crunch](https://www.nasdisks.com/articles/nas-drive-price-crunch/). diff --git a/price-trends/monthly-median-per-tb.csv b/price-trends/monthly-median-per-tb.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3f670ed --- /dev/null +++ b/price-trends/monthly-median-per-tb.csv @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +month,consumer_usd_per_tb,enterprise_usd_per_tb +2024-07,19.94,20.93 +2024-08,20.03,22.38 +2024-09,20.38,21.43 +2024-10,20.52,21.84 +2024-11,20.07,21.11 +2024-12,20.74,20.81 +2025-01,21.00,21.22 +2025-02,21.17,21.58 +2025-03,21.00,21.75 +2025-04,20.82,23.24 +2025-05,21.30,21.45 +2025-06,20.42,21.87 +2025-07,20.87,21.48 +2025-08,21.01,20.51 +2025-09,21.50,20.47 +2025-10,22.34,21.17 +2025-11,20.78,22.25 +2025-12,23.67,23.07 +2026-01,27.95,25.02 +2026-02,26.05,27.94 +2026-03,33.43,31.48 +2026-04,39.05,37.99 +2026-05,39.12,39.31 +2026-06,43.52,41.69 +2026-07,44.95,45.31 +2026-08,44.01,42.54 +2026-09,44.37,43.45 diff --git a/price-trends/nas-price-trend.png b/price-trends/nas-price-trend.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0ff64f0 Binary files /dev/null and b/price-trends/nas-price-trend.png differ