diff --git a/price-trends/README.md b/price-trends/README.md index 10a876e..946e13d 100644 --- a/price-trends/README.md +++ b/price-trends/README.md @@ -10,9 +10,17 @@ The chart below tracks both tiers from Jul 2024 to the latest month. Prices held Median price-per-TB sat flat around $20/TB through 2024 and most of 2025, then roughly doubled to the mid-$40s/TB from late 2025, and has held there since. Both tiers moved together: among new drives, enterprise is not the price-per-TB bargain it's assumed to be, and both got hit about equally. The usual driver is the AI datacenter buildout pulling high-capacity nearline supply. +## Sale frequency + +A companion view, in [`sale-frequency-by-model.csv`](sale-frequency-by-model.csv) and [`sale-frequency-weekly.csv`](sale-frequency-weekly.csv): how often each current drive actually goes *on sale*, and how deep. For each day we compare a drive's best price to a centred rolling median of its own recent price, so a genuine dip counts but the long price climb is not mistaken for a discount, then count the days sitting 5%+ below that baseline. Same scope as the $/TB series: 8TB and up, US, new in-stock prices, compiled from Amazon price history. + +NAS drives (WD Red / IronWolf class, including the Pro lines) go on sale several times more often than enterprise/datacenter drives - roughly one day in ten vs one in forty - though the cut is about the same size when it happens (~10% typical, ~30% at the deepest). Seagate IronWolf Pro goes on sale most often; Exos and Ultrastar barely move. Interactive weekly chart + sortable table: [nasdisks.com/articles/nas-drive-sale-frequency](https://www.nasdisks.com/articles/nas-drive-sale-frequency/). + ## Files - [`monthly-median-per-tb.csv`](monthly-median-per-tb.csv) - columns: `month`, `consumer_usd_per_tb`, `enterprise_usd_per_tb`. Computed monthly medians only. +- [`sale-frequency-by-model.csv`](sale-frequency-by-model.csv) - per drive: `brand`, `line`, `capacity_tb`, `segment` (`consumer` = NAS lines incl. Pro, `enterprise` = datacenter), `pct_days_on_sale`, `typical_discount_pct`, `deepest_discount_pct`, `sale_events`, `days_observed`. +- [`sale-frequency-weekly.csv`](sale-frequency-weekly.csv) - weekly share of tracked days on sale per tier: `week_start`, `consumer_pct_days_on_sale`, `enterprise_pct_days_on_sale`. ## Interactive version @@ -25,7 +33,7 @@ For each month, take each drive's average price-per-TB across its logged days, t 8TB and up because small drives carry a much higher price-per-TB (fixed per-drive costs spread over less capacity), and which small SKUs happen to be in stock would swing an all-capacity median for reasons unrelated to prices actually moving. -This folder publishes the computed monthly medians only, not the underlying per-drive price observations. +This folder publishes computed statistics only (monthly medians and the sale-frequency aggregates), not the underlying per-drive price observations. ## Takeaway for buyers @@ -33,4 +41,4 @@ Because the two tiers track each other, there's no reliable price-per-TB win fro ## Using this data -The monthly medians here are free to use, with a credit to `nasdisks.com` (a link back is appreciated). They are computed aggregate statistics, provided as-is, and separate from the repository's CC BY 4.0 license, which covers the drive specs and CMR/SMR data. +The monthly medians and sale-frequency figures here are free to use, with a credit to `nasdisks.com` (a link back is appreciated). They are computed aggregate statistics, provided as-is, and separate from the repository's CC BY 4.0 license, which covers the drive specs and CMR/SMR data. diff --git a/price-trends/sale-frequency-by-model.csv b/price-trends/sale-frequency-by-model.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2dc1038 --- /dev/null +++ b/price-trends/sale-frequency-by-model.csv @@ -0,0 +1,66 @@ +brand,line,capacity_tb,segment,pct_days_on_sale,typical_discount_pct,deepest_discount_pct,sale_events,days_observed +Seagate,"IronWolf Pro",20,consumer,25.4,9.5,21.4,31,710 +Seagate,"IronWolf Pro",12,consumer,19.6,8,26.4,26,679 +Seagate,"IronWolf Pro",16,consumer,18.9,9.1,24.2,24,694 +WD,"Red Plus",10,consumer,15.2,10.7,30.5,37,796 +Seagate,"IronWolf Pro",24,consumer,15,8.3,16.7,21,713 +WD,"Red Pro",24,consumer,14.9,16.5,35.3,18,403 +Seagate,"IronWolf Pro",14,consumer,13.7,13.8,34.8,28,782 +WD,Gold,24,enterprise,11,7.6,24,11,544 +WD,"Red Plus",12,consumer,10.2,9.4,46.6,27,775 +WD,"Red Pro",18,consumer,10,8.7,31,29,763 +WD,"Red Plus",8,consumer,9.5,9,27,22,781 +WD,"Red Pro",8,consumer,9.5,11.1,28.9,15,791 +WD,"Red Pro",22,consumer,9.5,8.5,29.7,17,767 +WD,Gold,12,enterprise,9.4,7.7,21.3,14,758 +Seagate,IronWolf,10,consumer,8.8,17.4,31.4,26,794 +WD,"Red Pro",14,consumer,8.7,8.1,26.4,20,789 +WD,Gold,24,enterprise,8.7,8.2,29.3,16,680 +WD,Gold,18,enterprise,8.5,7.8,26.6,21,785 +Seagate,"IronWolf Pro",10,consumer,8.2,12.9,42.2,18,794 +Toshiba,N300,8,consumer,8.1,19.3,36.3,8,442 +WD,"Red Pro",20,consumer,7.6,10.4,27.6,12,728 +Seagate,"Exos X20",20,enterprise,7.4,9.7,44.6,11,551 +WD,Gold,22,enterprise,7.1,7.9,34.3,16,760 +WD,"Red Pro",12,consumer,6.9,16.3,35.4,17,611 +WD,Gold,20,enterprise,6.1,6.4,26.4,12,625 +WD,"Ultrastar DC HC320",8,enterprise,6,10,47.1,16,745 +Seagate,"Exos X22",22,enterprise,5.9,8.8,39.2,4,323 +Toshiba,MG09,18,enterprise,5.5,8.2,30.1,12,793 +WD,"Red Pro",16,consumer,5.4,9.1,33.5,18,793 +Toshiba,N300,10,consumer,5.4,7.2,50.2,5,331 +Seagate,"Exos 7E8",8,enterprise,5,10.5,28.7,13,793 +Toshiba,MG07,14,enterprise,5,12.1,64.8,11,780 +WD,"Ultrastar DC HC590",26,enterprise,4.6,5.6,34.9,2,324 +WD,Gold,10,enterprise,4.2,10.4,57.4,6,792 +WD,Gold,14,enterprise,4.2,16,43,12,766 +WD,"Ultrastar DC HC550",18,enterprise,4.2,10.7,15.2,7,730 +Toshiba,MG06,10,enterprise,3.6,29.9,42.4,10,731 +Toshiba,MG07,12,enterprise,3.5,11.3,35.6,7,771 +Toshiba,N300,16,consumer,3.3,28.2,29,3,481 +Toshiba,MG09,16,enterprise,3.3,18.7,20,3,608 +WD,"Red Pro",10,consumer,3,25.2,53.5,5,725 +WD,"Ultrastar DC HC520",12,enterprise,3,9.9,33.1,5,600 +WD,"Ultrastar DC HC560",20,enterprise,2.7,5,18.5,4,711 +WD,Gold,16,enterprise,2.6,23.3,58.9,8,681 +Toshiba,N300,12,consumer,2.5,8.4,19.8,3,395 +Toshiba,MG10,20,enterprise,2.4,15.1,40.8,5,736 +Seagate,"Exos X18",18,enterprise,2.3,9,29.3,5,660 +Seagate,"Exos 7E10",10,enterprise,2.2,6.3,21.5,5,730 +WD,Gold,8,enterprise,1.9,8.8,8.8,1,724 +WD,"Ultrastar DC HC550",16,enterprise,1.9,10,11.5,5,730 +Toshiba,MG10,22,enterprise,1.8,12.6,20.4,4,792 +Toshiba,MG09,18,enterprise,1.8,7.3,46.7,3,763 +WD,"Ultrastar DC HC330",10,enterprise,1.4,5.7,10.3,4,793 +WD,"Ultrastar DC HC530",14,enterprise,1.2,13.1,30.5,3,730 +Seagate,"Exos X18",16,enterprise,1.1,48.3,48.4,1,437 +Toshiba,MG06,8,enterprise,0.8,68.6,68.6,3,633 +Seagate,"Exos X18",18,enterprise,0.6,21.6,63.1,2,793 +Toshiba,MG11,24,enterprise,0.6,5.3,5.3,2,494 +Seagate,"Exos X16",16,enterprise,0.5,6.3,7.1,2,556 +Toshiba,MG07,14,enterprise,0.4,6.2,6.2,1,793 +WD,"Ultrastar DC HC580",24,enterprise,0.3,72.7,72.7,1,360 +Seagate,"Exos X24",24,enterprise,0.1,5.9,5.9,1,709 +WD,"Ultrastar DC HC570",22,enterprise,0,0,0,0,730 +Seagate,"Exos 7E10",8,enterprise,0,0,0,0,197 +Toshiba,MG08,16,enterprise,0,0,0,0,222 diff --git a/price-trends/sale-frequency-weekly.csv b/price-trends/sale-frequency-weekly.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9241303 --- /dev/null +++ b/price-trends/sale-frequency-weekly.csv @@ -0,0 +1,117 @@ +week_start,consumer_pct_days_on_sale,enterprise_pct_days_on_sale +2024-07-01,0,0 +2024-07-08,10.9,0 +2024-07-15,13.4,1.9 +2024-07-22,7.6,1.4 +2024-07-29,10.1,1 +2024-08-05,0.8,0 +2024-08-12,10.1,0 +2024-08-19,15.1,3.6 +2024-08-26,0,4 +2024-09-02,8,1.7 +2024-09-09,22,6.5 +2024-09-16,10.1,9 +2024-09-23,2.5,2.5 +2024-09-30,8.2,2.1 +2024-10-07,10.3,3.4 +2024-10-14,11.9,7.1 +2024-10-21,19.8,4.5 +2024-10-28,15.1,1.8 +2024-11-04,13.5,0.9 +2024-11-11,4.1,0 +2024-11-18,21.8,3.1 +2024-11-25,25.6,4.3 +2024-12-02,10.5,0.8 +2024-12-09,10,5.9 +2024-12-16,4.8,4.2 +2024-12-23,0.8,0.4 +2024-12-30,2.4,2.2 +2025-01-06,13.1,1.8 +2025-01-13,7.4,1.7 +2025-01-20,10.3,2.9 +2025-01-27,19,3.3 +2025-02-03,4,0 +2025-02-10,7.1,0 +2025-02-17,14.3,1.6 +2025-02-24,9.2,2.4 +2025-03-03,8.7,6.1 +2025-03-10,0,2.3 +2025-03-17,2.2,0 +2025-03-24,5.9,1.2 +2025-03-31,21.7,4.2 +2025-04-07,13.1,2.7 +2025-04-14,8.8,1.5 +2025-04-21,8.1,1.1 +2025-04-28,7.1,1.9 +2025-05-05,5.2,1.1 +2025-05-12,9.1,0 +2025-05-19,8.4,3 +2025-05-26,3.9,4.5 +2025-06-02,11.7,4.1 +2025-06-09,3.9,2.2 +2025-06-16,5.3,1.1 +2025-06-23,3.9,4.8 +2025-06-30,14.3,5.5 +2025-07-07,24.5,2.9 +2025-07-14,8.3,1.1 +2025-07-21,10.6,2.6 +2025-07-28,21.4,3.8 +2025-08-04,6.8,3.8 +2025-08-11,3.8,1.9 +2025-08-18,9.7,2.6 +2025-08-25,11.8,1.1 +2025-09-01,5.6,1.5 +2025-09-08,8.2,0.7 +2025-09-15,7.4,0 +2025-09-22,5.2,1.1 +2025-09-29,5.6,2.3 +2025-10-06,11.4,4.2 +2025-10-13,8.2,4.8 +2025-10-20,13.8,4 +2025-10-27,18.8,2.9 +2025-11-03,14.9,2.9 +2025-11-10,6.3,2.5 +2025-11-17,17.5,4.3 +2025-11-24,22.8,1.1 +2025-12-01,12.4,6.1 +2025-12-08,12.8,9.6 +2025-12-15,17.3,3.3 +2025-12-22,18.5,1.8 +2025-12-29,7.5,0.7 +2026-01-05,5.8,3.7 +2026-01-12,20.8,4.8 +2026-01-19,8.5,3 +2026-01-26,12.6,5.5 +2026-02-02,12.5,6 +2026-02-09,7.4,3.3 +2026-02-16,3.5,4.8 +2026-02-23,4.5,11.4 +2026-03-02,10.1,4.6 +2026-03-09,7.2,0.9 +2026-03-16,6.7,2.1 +2026-03-23,13.1,5.2 +2026-03-30,20,7 +2026-04-06,9,5.9 +2026-04-13,25,8.6 +2026-04-20,19.3,2.9 +2026-04-27,7.5,0.8 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