diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore deleted file mode 100644 index 3a6336c..0000000 --- a/.gitignore +++ /dev/null @@ -1,2 +0,0 @@ -# Secrets - never commit (canonical copy lives in sysarch, not here) -.zenodo-token diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index b8d0513..47baece 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -14,8 +14,6 @@ Maintained at [nasdisks.com](https://www.nasdisks.com/), where the same data pow ## What's inside -**Price trends:** [`price-trends/`](price-trends/) - two charts of the NAS drive market over time: the monthly median \$/TB (consumer vs enterprise, the storage price crunch), and how often each drive goes on sale and how deep. Computed data plus the charts. - | File | Rows | What it is | |------|------|------------| | [`data/drives-2026-09-04.csv`](data/drives-2026-09-04.csv) | 273 | The headline file: one flat row per drive, all specs and failure rate combined. | diff --git a/price-trends/README.md b/price-trends/README.md deleted file mode 100644 index 42ba309..0000000 --- a/price-trends/README.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1,40 +0,0 @@ -# NAS drive price trends - -Two computed views of the NAS hard-drive market over time, both from our daily price history and maintained at [nasdisks.com](https://www.nasdisks.com/): what a terabyte costs, and how often drives actually go on sale. Scope throughout: in-production 8TB+ NAS hard drives, US, new in-stock prices, compiled from Amazon price history. - -## Price per terabyte over time - -Monthly median price-per-terabyte, split into the two tiers people choose between: consumer NAS (WD Red / IronWolf class) and enterprise (Exos / MG / Ultrastar). - -![Median dollars per TB, consumer NAS vs enterprise](nas-price-trend.png) - -Median price-per-TB sat flat around \$20/TB through 2024 and most of 2025, then roughly doubled to the mid-\$40s/TB from late 2025, and has held there since. Both tiers moved together: among new drives, enterprise is not the price-per-TB bargain it's assumed to be, and both got hit about equally. The usual driver is the AI datacenter buildout pulling high-capacity nearline supply. Because the tiers track each other, there's no reliable price-per-TB win from picking enterprise over consumer among new drives; the one genuine discount is the recertified/refurbished enterprise market, which isn't included here. - -**Method.** For each month, take each drive's average price-per-TB across its logged days, then the median of those per-drive values across drives (so a model with more logged days doesn't skew the month). 8TB and up because small drives carry a much higher price-per-TB, and which small SKUs happen to be in stock would swing an all-capacity median for reasons unrelated to prices actually moving. - -**File:** - -- [`monthly-median-per-tb.csv`](monthly-median-per-tb.csv) - `month`, `consumer_usd_per_tb`, `enterprise_usd_per_tb`. - -**Interactive version** (hover, zoom, and a capacity-matched cheapest-per-TB table): [nasdisks.com/articles/nas-drive-price-crunch](https://www.nasdisks.com/articles/nas-drive-price-crunch/). - -## How often drives go on sale - -How often each current drive actually dips *on sale*, and how deep. - -![Share of days on sale, consumer NAS vs enterprise](sale-frequency-trend.png) - -NAS drives (WD Red / IronWolf class, including the Pro lines) go on sale several times more often than enterprise/datacenter drives - roughly one day in ten vs one in forty - though the cut is about the same size when it happens (~10% typical, ~30% at the deepest). Seagate IronWolf Pro goes on sale most often; Exos and Ultrastar barely move. It's a difference in frequency, not depth. - -**Method.** For each day we compare a drive's best price to a centred rolling median of its own recent price, so a genuine dip counts but the long price climb is not mistaken for a discount, then count the days sitting 5%+ below that baseline. A "sale event" is a run of such days. - -**Files:** - -- [`sale-frequency-by-model.csv`](sale-frequency-by-model.csv) - per drive: `brand`, `line`, `capacity_tb`, `segment` (`consumer` = NAS lines incl. Pro, `enterprise` = datacenter), `pct_days_on_sale`, `typical_discount_pct`, `deepest_discount_pct`, `sale_events`, `days_observed`. -- [`sale-frequency-weekly.csv`](sale-frequency-weekly.csv) - weekly share of tracked days on sale per tier: `week_start`, `consumer_pct_days_on_sale`, `enterprise_pct_days_on_sale`. - -**Interactive version** (weekly chart + sortable per-model table): [nasdisks.com/articles/nas-drive-sale-frequency](https://www.nasdisks.com/articles/nas-drive-sale-frequency/). - -## Using this data - -The figures here (monthly medians and sale-frequency aggregates) are free to use, with a credit to `nasdisks.com` (a link back is appreciated). They are computed aggregate statistics, provided as-is, and separate from the repository's CC BY 4.0 license, which covers the drive specs and CMR/SMR data. diff --git a/price-trends/monthly-median-per-tb.csv b/price-trends/monthly-median-per-tb.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 3f670ed..0000000 --- a/price-trends/monthly-median-per-tb.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,28 +0,0 @@ -month,consumer_usd_per_tb,enterprise_usd_per_tb -2024-07,19.94,20.93 -2024-08,20.03,22.38 -2024-09,20.38,21.43 -2024-10,20.52,21.84 -2024-11,20.07,21.11 -2024-12,20.74,20.81 -2025-01,21.00,21.22 -2025-02,21.17,21.58 -2025-03,21.00,21.75 -2025-04,20.82,23.24 -2025-05,21.30,21.45 -2025-06,20.42,21.87 -2025-07,20.87,21.48 -2025-08,21.01,20.51 -2025-09,21.50,20.47 -2025-10,22.34,21.17 -2025-11,20.78,22.25 -2025-12,23.67,23.07 -2026-01,27.95,25.02 -2026-02,26.05,27.94 -2026-03,33.43,31.48 -2026-04,39.05,37.99 -2026-05,39.12,39.31 -2026-06,43.52,41.69 -2026-07,44.95,45.31 -2026-08,44.01,42.54 -2026-09,44.37,43.45 diff --git a/price-trends/nas-price-trend.png b/price-trends/nas-price-trend.png deleted file mode 100644 index 0ff64f0..0000000 Binary files a/price-trends/nas-price-trend.png and /dev/null differ diff --git a/price-trends/sale-frequency-by-model.csv b/price-trends/sale-frequency-by-model.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 2dc1038..0000000 --- a/price-trends/sale-frequency-by-model.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,66 +0,0 @@ -brand,line,capacity_tb,segment,pct_days_on_sale,typical_discount_pct,deepest_discount_pct,sale_events,days_observed -Seagate,"IronWolf Pro",20,consumer,25.4,9.5,21.4,31,710 -Seagate,"IronWolf Pro",12,consumer,19.6,8,26.4,26,679 -Seagate,"IronWolf Pro",16,consumer,18.9,9.1,24.2,24,694 -WD,"Red Plus",10,consumer,15.2,10.7,30.5,37,796 -Seagate,"IronWolf Pro",24,consumer,15,8.3,16.7,21,713 -WD,"Red Pro",24,consumer,14.9,16.5,35.3,18,403 -Seagate,"IronWolf Pro",14,consumer,13.7,13.8,34.8,28,782 -WD,Gold,24,enterprise,11,7.6,24,11,544 -WD,"Red Plus",12,consumer,10.2,9.4,46.6,27,775 -WD,"Red Pro",18,consumer,10,8.7,31,29,763 -WD,"Red Plus",8,consumer,9.5,9,27,22,781 -WD,"Red Pro",8,consumer,9.5,11.1,28.9,15,791 -WD,"Red Pro",22,consumer,9.5,8.5,29.7,17,767 -WD,Gold,12,enterprise,9.4,7.7,21.3,14,758 -Seagate,IronWolf,10,consumer,8.8,17.4,31.4,26,794 -WD,"Red Pro",14,consumer,8.7,8.1,26.4,20,789 -WD,Gold,24,enterprise,8.7,8.2,29.3,16,680 -WD,Gold,18,enterprise,8.5,7.8,26.6,21,785 -Seagate,"IronWolf Pro",10,consumer,8.2,12.9,42.2,18,794 -Toshiba,N300,8,consumer,8.1,19.3,36.3,8,442 -WD,"Red Pro",20,consumer,7.6,10.4,27.6,12,728 -Seagate,"Exos X20",20,enterprise,7.4,9.7,44.6,11,551 -WD,Gold,22,enterprise,7.1,7.9,34.3,16,760 -WD,"Red Pro",12,consumer,6.9,16.3,35.4,17,611 -WD,Gold,20,enterprise,6.1,6.4,26.4,12,625 -WD,"Ultrastar DC HC320",8,enterprise,6,10,47.1,16,745 -Seagate,"Exos X22",22,enterprise,5.9,8.8,39.2,4,323 -Toshiba,MG09,18,enterprise,5.5,8.2,30.1,12,793 -WD,"Red Pro",16,consumer,5.4,9.1,33.5,18,793 -Toshiba,N300,10,consumer,5.4,7.2,50.2,5,331 -Seagate,"Exos 7E8",8,enterprise,5,10.5,28.7,13,793 -Toshiba,MG07,14,enterprise,5,12.1,64.8,11,780 -WD,"Ultrastar DC HC590",26,enterprise,4.6,5.6,34.9,2,324 -WD,Gold,10,enterprise,4.2,10.4,57.4,6,792 -WD,Gold,14,enterprise,4.2,16,43,12,766 -WD,"Ultrastar DC HC550",18,enterprise,4.2,10.7,15.2,7,730 -Toshiba,MG06,10,enterprise,3.6,29.9,42.4,10,731 -Toshiba,MG07,12,enterprise,3.5,11.3,35.6,7,771 -Toshiba,N300,16,consumer,3.3,28.2,29,3,481 -Toshiba,MG09,16,enterprise,3.3,18.7,20,3,608 -WD,"Red Pro",10,consumer,3,25.2,53.5,5,725 -WD,"Ultrastar DC HC520",12,enterprise,3,9.9,33.1,5,600 -WD,"Ultrastar DC HC560",20,enterprise,2.7,5,18.5,4,711 -WD,Gold,16,enterprise,2.6,23.3,58.9,8,681 -Toshiba,N300,12,consumer,2.5,8.4,19.8,3,395 -Toshiba,MG10,20,enterprise,2.4,15.1,40.8,5,736 -Seagate,"Exos X18",18,enterprise,2.3,9,29.3,5,660 -Seagate,"Exos 7E10",10,enterprise,2.2,6.3,21.5,5,730 -WD,Gold,8,enterprise,1.9,8.8,8.8,1,724 -WD,"Ultrastar DC HC550",16,enterprise,1.9,10,11.5,5,730 -Toshiba,MG10,22,enterprise,1.8,12.6,20.4,4,792 -Toshiba,MG09,18,enterprise,1.8,7.3,46.7,3,763 -WD,"Ultrastar DC HC330",10,enterprise,1.4,5.7,10.3,4,793 -WD,"Ultrastar DC HC530",14,enterprise,1.2,13.1,30.5,3,730 -Seagate,"Exos X18",16,enterprise,1.1,48.3,48.4,1,437 -Toshiba,MG06,8,enterprise,0.8,68.6,68.6,3,633 -Seagate,"Exos X18",18,enterprise,0.6,21.6,63.1,2,793 -Toshiba,MG11,24,enterprise,0.6,5.3,5.3,2,494 -Seagate,"Exos X16",16,enterprise,0.5,6.3,7.1,2,556 -Toshiba,MG07,14,enterprise,0.4,6.2,6.2,1,793 -WD,"Ultrastar DC HC580",24,enterprise,0.3,72.7,72.7,1,360 -Seagate,"Exos X24",24,enterprise,0.1,5.9,5.9,1,709 -WD,"Ultrastar DC HC570",22,enterprise,0,0,0,0,730 -Seagate,"Exos 7E10",8,enterprise,0,0,0,0,197 -Toshiba,MG08,16,enterprise,0,0,0,0,222 diff --git a/price-trends/sale-frequency-trend.png b/price-trends/sale-frequency-trend.png deleted file mode 100644 index a6e6079..0000000 Binary files a/price-trends/sale-frequency-trend.png and /dev/null differ diff --git a/price-trends/sale-frequency-weekly.csv b/price-trends/sale-frequency-weekly.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 9241303..0000000 --- a/price-trends/sale-frequency-weekly.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,117 +0,0 @@ -week_start,consumer_pct_days_on_sale,enterprise_pct_days_on_sale -2024-07-01,0,0 -2024-07-08,10.9,0 -2024-07-15,13.4,1.9 -2024-07-22,7.6,1.4 -2024-07-29,10.1,1 -2024-08-05,0.8,0 -2024-08-12,10.1,0 -2024-08-19,15.1,3.6 -2024-08-26,0,4 -2024-09-02,8,1.7 -2024-09-09,22,6.5 -2024-09-16,10.1,9 -2024-09-23,2.5,2.5 -2024-09-30,8.2,2.1 -2024-10-07,10.3,3.4 -2024-10-14,11.9,7.1 -2024-10-21,19.8,4.5 -2024-10-28,15.1,1.8 -2024-11-04,13.5,0.9 -2024-11-11,4.1,0 -2024-11-18,21.8,3.1 -2024-11-25,25.6,4.3 -2024-12-02,10.5,0.8 -2024-12-09,10,5.9 -2024-12-16,4.8,4.2 -2024-12-23,0.8,0.4 -2024-12-30,2.4,2.2 -2025-01-06,13.1,1.8 -2025-01-13,7.4,1.7 -2025-01-20,10.3,2.9 -2025-01-27,19,3.3 -2025-02-03,4,0 -2025-02-10,7.1,0 -2025-02-17,14.3,1.6 -2025-02-24,9.2,2.4 -2025-03-03,8.7,6.1 -2025-03-10,0,2.3 -2025-03-17,2.2,0 -2025-03-24,5.9,1.2 -2025-03-31,21.7,4.2 -2025-04-07,13.1,2.7 -2025-04-14,8.8,1.5 -2025-04-21,8.1,1.1 -2025-04-28,7.1,1.9 -2025-05-05,5.2,1.1 -2025-05-12,9.1,0 -2025-05-19,8.4,3 -2025-05-26,3.9,4.5 -2025-06-02,11.7,4.1 -2025-06-09,3.9,2.2 -2025-06-16,5.3,1.1 -2025-06-23,3.9,4.8 -2025-06-30,14.3,5.5 -2025-07-07,24.5,2.9 -2025-07-14,8.3,1.1 -2025-07-21,10.6,2.6 -2025-07-28,21.4,3.8 -2025-08-04,6.8,3.8 -2025-08-11,3.8,1.9 -2025-08-18,9.7,2.6 -2025-08-25,11.8,1.1 -2025-09-01,5.6,1.5 -2025-09-08,8.2,0.7 -2025-09-15,7.4,0 -2025-09-22,5.2,1.1 -2025-09-29,5.6,2.3 -2025-10-06,11.4,4.2 -2025-10-13,8.2,4.8 -2025-10-20,13.8,4 -2025-10-27,18.8,2.9 -2025-11-03,14.9,2.9 -2025-11-10,6.3,2.5 -2025-11-17,17.5,4.3 -2025-11-24,22.8,1.1 -2025-12-01,12.4,6.1 -2025-12-08,12.8,9.6 -2025-12-15,17.3,3.3 -2025-12-22,18.5,1.8 -2025-12-29,7.5,0.7 -2026-01-05,5.8,3.7 -2026-01-12,20.8,4.8 -2026-01-19,8.5,3 -2026-01-26,12.6,5.5 -2026-02-02,12.5,6 -2026-02-09,7.4,3.3 -2026-02-16,3.5,4.8 -2026-02-23,4.5,11.4 -2026-03-02,10.1,4.6 -2026-03-09,7.2,0.9 -2026-03-16,6.7,2.1 -2026-03-23,13.1,5.2 -2026-03-30,20,7 -2026-04-06,9,5.9 -2026-04-13,25,8.6 -2026-04-20,19.3,2.9 -2026-04-27,7.5,0.8 -2026-05-04,9.8,2.8 -2026-05-11,14.9,7.1 -2026-05-18,13.6,8.7 -2026-05-25,8.4,4.7 -2026-06-01,15.1,10.5 -2026-06-08,22.4,12.4 -2026-06-15,21.8,12.5 -2026-06-22,7.5,8.1 -2026-06-29,8.3,9.8 -2026-07-06,5.1,8.8 -2026-07-13,15.3,3.7 -2026-07-20,17.5,3.5 -2026-07-27,5.7,0 -2026-08-03,8.9,3.7 -2026-08-10,9.4,2 -2026-08-17,7.9,0.8 -2026-08-24,3.9,2.8 -2026-08-31,8.4,2.8 -2026-09-07,12.1,0.8 -2026-09-14,0,0