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deeddy
f7c67f8e62 Add price-trends: monthly median $/TB over time (consumer vs enterprise)
Computed monthly medians (Jul 2024 onward) plus a chart and a write-up
(the trend, method, buyer takeaway, and usage note). Aggregate only - no
underlying per-drive price observations.
2026-09-16 12:53:11 +02:00
deeddy
c00cee5ccc README: link the new price-trends folder 2026-09-16 12:53:11 +02:00
4 changed files with 66 additions and 0 deletions

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@ -22,6 +22,8 @@ Maintained at [nasdisks.com](https://www.nasdisks.com/), where the same data pow
| [`data/backblaze-afr-2026-09-04.csv`](data/backblaze-afr-2026-09-04.csv) | 31 | Annualized failure rates over a rolling window through Q2 2026 (full-year 2025 plus the Q1 and Q2 2026 quarters), computed from Backblaze raw Drive Stats. | | [`data/backblaze-afr-2026-09-04.csv`](data/backblaze-afr-2026-09-04.csv) | 31 | Annualized failure rates over a rolling window through Q2 2026 (full-year 2025 plus the Q1 and Q2 2026 quarters), computed from Backblaze raw Drive Stats. |
| [`data/series-reliability-2026-09-04.csv`](data/series-reliability-2026-09-04.csv) | - | Manufacturer series specs (warranty, rated workload, MTBF) used as context where Backblaze has no data. | | [`data/series-reliability-2026-09-04.csv`](data/series-reliability-2026-09-04.csv) | - | Manufacturer series specs (warranty, rated workload, MTBF) used as context where Backblaze has no data. |
**Price trends:** [`price-trends/`](price-trends/) tracks the monthly median $/TB for NAS drives over time (consumer vs enterprise) - the storage price crunch in one chart, plus the computed data.
## Quick start ## Quick start
The files in `data/` are ready to use as-is. If you'd rather hit a live endpoint (CORS-enabled, cached, no key, no rate limit): The files in `data/` are ready to use as-is. If you'd rather hit a live endpoint (CORS-enabled, cached, no key, no rate limit):

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price-trends/README.md Normal file
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# NAS drive price trends
Monthly median price-per-terabyte for current 8TB+ NAS hard drives (US, new, in stock), from Jul 2024 to the latest month, split into the two tiers people choose between: consumer NAS (WD Red / IronWolf class) and enterprise (Exos / MG / Ultrastar).
The chart below tracks both tiers from Jul 2024 to the latest month. Prices held flat around $20 per terabyte for over a year, then climbed sharply from late 2025 to roughly double, and have stayed there since. Consumer NAS and enterprise drives moved almost in lockstep the whole way.
![Median dollars per TB, consumer NAS vs enterprise](nas-price-trend.png)
## The trend
Median price-per-TB sat flat around $20/TB through 2024 and most of 2025, then roughly doubled to the mid-$40s/TB from late 2025, and has held there since. Both tiers moved together: among new drives, enterprise is not the price-per-TB bargain it's assumed to be, and both got hit about equally. The usual driver is the AI datacenter buildout pulling high-capacity nearline supply.
## Files
- [`monthly-median-per-tb.csv`](monthly-median-per-tb.csv) - columns: `month`, `consumer_usd_per_tb`, `enterprise_usd_per_tb`. Computed monthly medians only.
## Interactive version
- Hover, zoom, and a capacity-matched cheapest-per-TB table: [nasdisks.com/articles/nas-drive-price-crunch](https://www.nasdisks.com/articles/nas-drive-price-crunch/).
- Part of the open [NAS drive dataset](https://github.com/deeddy/nas-drive-data), maintained at [nasdisks.com](https://www.nasdisks.com/).
## Method
For each month, take each drive's average price-per-TB across its logged days, then the median of those per-drive values across drives (so a model with more logged days doesn't skew the month). Scope: 8TB and up, US, new in-stock prices, compiled from Amazon price history. CMR/SMR and specs from datasheets.
8TB and up because small drives carry a much higher price-per-TB (fixed per-drive costs spread over less capacity), and which small SKUs happen to be in stock would swing an all-capacity median for reasons unrelated to prices actually moving.
This folder publishes the computed monthly medians only, not the underlying per-drive price observations.
## Takeaway for buyers
Because the two tiers track each other, there's no reliable price-per-TB win from picking enterprise over consumer among new drives. Buy on price-per-TB and CMR vs SMR, not on tier. The one genuine discount is the recertified/refurbished enterprise market, which sits well below new prices but comes with shorter reseller warranties and prior drive hours, so it isn't included here. And since these are supply-driven prices, they are unlikely to snap back to 2024 levels soon; plan around the current floor rather than waiting for a rollback.
## Using this data
The monthly medians here are free to use, with a credit to `nasdisks.com` (a link back is appreciated). They are computed aggregate statistics, provided as-is, and separate from the repository's CC BY 4.0 license, which covers the drive specs and CMR/SMR data.

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month,consumer_usd_per_tb,enterprise_usd_per_tb
2024-07,19.94,20.93
2024-08,20.03,22.38
2024-09,20.38,21.43
2024-10,20.52,21.84
2024-11,20.07,21.11
2024-12,20.74,20.81
2025-01,21.00,21.22
2025-02,21.17,21.58
2025-03,21.00,21.75
2025-04,20.82,23.24
2025-05,21.30,21.45
2025-06,20.42,21.87
2025-07,20.87,21.48
2025-08,21.01,20.51
2025-09,21.50,20.47
2025-10,22.34,21.17
2025-11,20.78,22.25
2025-12,23.67,23.07
2026-01,27.95,25.02
2026-02,26.05,27.94
2026-03,33.43,31.48
2026-04,39.05,37.99
2026-05,39.12,39.31
2026-06,43.52,41.69
2026-07,44.95,45.31
2026-08,44.01,42.54
2026-09,44.37,43.45
1 month consumer_usd_per_tb enterprise_usd_per_tb
2 2024-07 19.94 20.93
3 2024-08 20.03 22.38
4 2024-09 20.38 21.43
5 2024-10 20.52 21.84
6 2024-11 20.07 21.11
7 2024-12 20.74 20.81
8 2025-01 21.00 21.22
9 2025-02 21.17 21.58
10 2025-03 21.00 21.75
11 2025-04 20.82 23.24
12 2025-05 21.30 21.45
13 2025-06 20.42 21.87
14 2025-07 20.87 21.48
15 2025-08 21.01 20.51
16 2025-09 21.50 20.47
17 2025-10 22.34 21.17
18 2025-11 20.78 22.25
19 2025-12 23.67 23.07
20 2026-01 27.95 25.02
21 2026-02 26.05 27.94
22 2026-03 33.43 31.48
23 2026-04 39.05 37.99
24 2026-05 39.12 39.31
25 2026-06 43.52 41.69
26 2026-07 44.95 45.31
27 2026-08 44.01 42.54
28 2026-09 44.37 43.45

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