nas-drive-data/price-trends/README.md

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NAS drive price trends

Two computed views of the NAS hard-drive market over time, both from our daily price history and maintained at nasdisks.com: what a terabyte costs, and how often drives actually go on sale. Scope throughout: in-production 8TB+ NAS hard drives, US, new in-stock prices, compiled from Amazon price history.

Price per terabyte over time

Monthly median price-per-terabyte, split into the two tiers people choose between: consumer NAS (WD Red / IronWolf class) and enterprise (Exos / MG / Ultrastar).

Median dollars per TB, consumer NAS vs enterprise

Median price-per-TB sat flat around $20/TB through 2024 and most of 2025, then roughly doubled to the mid-$40s/TB from late 2025, and has held there since. Both tiers moved together: among new drives, enterprise is not the price-per-TB bargain it's assumed to be, and both got hit about equally. The usual driver is the AI datacenter buildout pulling high-capacity nearline supply. Because the tiers track each other, there's no reliable price-per-TB win from picking enterprise over consumer among new drives; the one genuine discount is the recertified/refurbished enterprise market, which isn't included here.

Method. For each month, take each drive's average price-per-TB across its logged days, then the median of those per-drive values across drives (so a model with more logged days doesn't skew the month). 8TB and up because small drives carry a much higher price-per-TB, and which small SKUs happen to be in stock would swing an all-capacity median for reasons unrelated to prices actually moving.

File:

Interactive version (hover, zoom, and a capacity-matched cheapest-per-TB table): nasdisks.com/articles/nas-drive-price-crunch.

How often drives go on sale

How often each current drive actually dips on sale, and how deep.

Share of days on sale, consumer NAS vs enterprise

NAS drives (WD Red / IronWolf class, including the Pro lines) go on sale several times more often than enterprise/datacenter drives - roughly one day in ten vs one in forty - though the cut is about the same size when it happens (~10% typical, ~30% at the deepest). Seagate IronWolf Pro goes on sale most often; Exos and Ultrastar barely move. It's a difference in frequency, not depth.

Method. For each day we compare a drive's best price to a centred rolling median of its own recent price, so a genuine dip counts but the long price climb is not mistaken for a discount, then count the days sitting 5%+ below that baseline. A "sale event" is a run of such days.

Files:

  • sale-frequency-by-model.csv - per drive: brand, line, capacity_tb, segment (consumer = NAS lines incl. Pro, enterprise = datacenter), pct_days_on_sale, typical_discount_pct, deepest_discount_pct, sale_events, days_observed.
  • sale-frequency-weekly.csv - weekly share of tracked days on sale per tier: week_start, consumer_pct_days_on_sale, enterprise_pct_days_on_sale.

Interactive version (weekly chart + sortable per-model table): nasdisks.com/articles/nas-drive-sale-frequency.

Using this data

The figures here (monthly medians and sale-frequency aggregates) are free to use, with a credit to nasdisks.com (a link back is appreciated). They are computed aggregate statistics, provided as-is, and separate from the repository's CC BY 4.0 license, which covers the drive specs and CMR/SMR data.